The Indian equity market kicked off the new week on a cautious note on Monday, November 10, 2025, as investors preferred to tread carefully ahead of key domestic and global developments. Despite the subdued start, optimism remains alive among analysts who expect the market to regain momentum in the near term, supported by healthy earnings, strong domestic fundamentals, and selective institutional buying.
Muted Start for Benchmark Indices
At the opening bell, both major indices showed marginal gains. The Nifty 50 index began the session at 25,503.50, up by 11.20 points (0.04%), while the BSE Sensex opened at 83,350.35, rising by 134.07 points (0.16%). The early movement indicated cautious optimism rather than aggressive positioning, reflecting the wait-and-watch sentiment prevailing among investors.
Market experts noted that traders are likely to maintain a conservative stance during the first half of the week due to upcoming political and macroeconomic events. The much-anticipated Bihar election exit polls, scheduled for release after market hours on November 11, and the official election results on November 14, are expected to play a key role in shaping short-term sentiment.
Dharmesh Shah’s Weekly Market Outlook
According to Dharmesh Shah, Vice President (Technical and Derivatives Research) at ICICI Securities, the Indian equity benchmarks are currently undergoing a phase of consolidation, influenced by weak global cues and profit-taking across select sectors.
“The equity benchmark continued with its downward trajectory tracking weak global trends amid concerns over AI sector valuations,” Shah said in his weekly note. “The Nifty 50 lost around 0.8% to settle the truncated week at 25,500, while small caps faced heavier selling pressure, falling about 1.5%.”
Shah pointed out that Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) Banks continued their strong upward trajectory, while the Information Technology (IT) and Metal sectors underperformed during the week. The overall price structure on the weekly chart, he noted, formed a “bear candle” with lower highs and lower lows — signaling a temporary pause in upward momentum.
Nifty May Consolidate in the 25,800–25,100 Range
Looking ahead, Shah expects market volatility to remain elevated over the next few sessions due to the Bihar election outcome and other macro triggers. However, he remains constructive on the medium-term outlook, suggesting that investors should focus on stock-specific opportunities rather than index-level movements.
“We expect the index to consolidate in the broader range of 25,800–25,100 as the earning season nears its end,” he added. “Investors should look to accumulate quality stocks on dips, particularly those supported by robust earnings and strong balance sheets.”
Shah emphasized that 25,100 acts as a crucial support zone for the Nifty 50. A sustained hold above this level would likely attract fresh buying interest. Conversely, any decisive close above 25,800, he noted, could trigger a renewed upward momentum, potentially driving the index toward its lifetime high of 26,300 by December 2025.
Indicators Suggest Structural Uptrend Intact
Despite recent volatility, Shah maintains a bullish medium-term view, citing several technical and fundamental factors that indicate resilience in the broader market structure.
1. Healthy Retracement Post Strong Rally
He highlighted that the recent 800-point decline in the Nifty over the past three weeks is merely a “healthy retracement” following the strong 1,500-point rally seen in October 2025. The slower pace of correction, in his view, reinforces the structural uptrend and indicates that the market is digesting gains rather than reversing its trend.
2. Midcaps Show Relative Strength
Interestingly, the Midcap Index outperformed the benchmark during the same period, closing the week flat even as large caps witnessed pressure. This divergence, Shah noted, reflects strong institutional interest in midcap stocks with solid earnings potential — a trend that often precedes broader market recoveries.
3. Earnings Provide a Cushion
On the earnings front, Shah pointed out that Q1 FY26 results have largely met expectations, with few major disappointments. This consistency has helped cushion the broader market against external headwinds and may serve as a foundation for the next leg of the rally once global uncertainties ease.
4. Historical November Trends Favor Bulls
From a historical perspective, Shah highlighted that November has traditionally been a strong month for Indian equities. Since the year 2000, the Nifty has posted positive returns in two out of every three Novembers (66% strike rate), with average gains exceeding 2%. If history repeats itself, investors could witness a strong finish to the month once current uncertainties subside.
5. Key Sectors Poised for Gains
According to Shah, the sectors likely to continue their upward journey include Banking and Financial Services (BFSI), Automobiles, and Metals, which have shown consistent strength and favorable sectoral trends in recent weeks.
Key Domestic and Global Triggers to Watch
While the market structure remains constructive, Shah emphasized several macro and political developments that could influence short-term movements:
- Bihar Election Outcome:
The state elections will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment, especially for sectors linked to infrastructure and public spending. A decisive political outcome could provide stability and clarity for investors. - India–US Tariff Negotiations:
Developments in trade talks between India and the United States will be another key monitorable. Any progress toward tariff relaxation could boost export-oriented sectors like textiles, pharma, and IT. - U.S. Dollar Index Movements:
Shah also pointed out that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has once again retreated from the upper band of its four-month consolidation near the 100-mark. A further decline in the dollar index would be positive for emerging markets, including India, as it tends to attract foreign portfolio inflows.
Stock Recommendations: BEL and Union Bank of India
In the midst of consolidation, Shah recommends two quality stocks for investors looking to accumulate positions on dips — Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) and Union Bank of India. Both counters, he believes, are backed by strong earnings visibility and robust technical setups.
1. Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
- Buy Range: ₹405 – ₹417
- Target Price: ₹466
- Stop Loss: ₹385
Shah expects BEL to continue benefiting from India’s strong defense spending and increasing domestic manufacturing under the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative. The company’s healthy order book, steady margins, and expanding export footprint make it a preferred pick in the defense electronics space.
Technically, BEL has maintained higher highs and higher lows on the weekly charts, indicating sustained momentum. A close above the ₹420 level could trigger a fresh breakout, paving the way for a move toward the ₹466 target. Long-term investors are advised to hold the stock for a 3–6 month horizon.
2. Union Bank of India
- Buy Range: ₹147 – ₹153
- Target Price: ₹168
- Stop Loss: ₹138
Among PSU banks, Shah sees Union Bank of India as a strong contender for further upside. The stock has been on an uptrend in recent months, supported by robust loan growth, improving asset quality, and consistent profitability.
Union Bank’s latest quarterly results reflected strong credit expansion, higher net interest margins (NIMs), and a meaningful reduction in non-performing assets (NPAs). On the charts, the stock has been forming a series of higher bottoms — a bullish pattern that often signals further upside potential.
A decisive close above ₹153, according to Shah, would confirm a breakout from its consolidation zone, targeting ₹168 in the near term.
Broader Investment Strategy: Accumulate Quality Stocks on Dips
While short-term volatility is expected, Shah believes the overall market structure remains healthy. He advises investors to adopt a “buy-on-dips” approach rather than chasing momentum rallies.
“Given the strong domestic fundamentals, healthy corporate earnings, and supportive technical setup, the recent correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity,” he said. “Investors should focus on quality midcaps, PSU banks, and auto stocks with improving earnings visibility.”
He also recommended maintaining a disciplined stop-loss strategy to manage risk, given the possibility of heightened volatility around political and global events.
Investor Sentiment: Waiting for Clarity
Market observers believe that the cautious tone at the start of the week reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding both domestic elections and international macroeconomic developments. Institutional investors are expected to remain selective in their approach until greater clarity emerges on political stability and global monetary trends.
However, retail investor participation continues to remain strong, supported by systematic investment inflows into equity mutual funds and direct stock purchases through online platforms. Analysts suggest that such consistent retail participation could help cushion any downside volatility in the near term.
Global Cues and AI Sector Concerns
Globally, the sentiment has been mixed, with U.S. and European markets witnessing volatility amid concerns over high valuations in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and rising treasury yields. Shah pointed out that these concerns have spilled over into Asian markets as well, leading to short-term corrections across technology-heavy indices.
Nonetheless, India’s relative resilience — driven by domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and a stable macroeconomic environment — continues to attract long-term investors, including foreign institutional investors (FIIs).
Technical Snapshot: What the Charts Indicate
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50’s ability to hold above 25,100 remains key. Any sustained movement below this level could trigger further profit booking, while a move above 25,800 would likely confirm a short-term breakout. Momentum oscillators such as RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicate that the index is currently in a neutral zone, suggesting potential for recovery if buying momentum returns.
For the Bank Nifty, support lies near 54,000, while resistance is seen at 55,800. The sector’s recent strength in PSU banks, coupled with improving credit growth data, indicates potential leadership in the next uptrend.
